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We are facing a significant emergency. This is an attempt to present the problem clearly. The intermittent closure of the Gulf of Hormuz due to the ongoing Iran conflict is going to cause many countries to "run out of oil" — some earlier than others. For the U.S., estimates differ, but sometime in the next several months, it will be "running out of oil." What is involved in that unprecedented process is a complex and fascinating story, but wherever and whenever it happens, it will be relatively rapid and its consequences will be significant personal hardship for us. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, with his many contacts — direct and indirect, around the world — has been an excellent source of current information on what is happening in the war with Iran, both in his daily posts (available at SONAR: "Son of the New American Revolution" — https://larrycjohnson.substack.com) and his numerous interviews with a variety of hosts. Johnson is but one of a number of analysts who in my experience have proved to be reliable. I focus here on Johnson in particular because of his recent helpful coverage of the petroleum issue. With respect to that, I am providing below what I consider to be his three most important posts. I've prefaced them with an interview of petroleum industry expert Art Berman, subsequently summarized by Johnson. It was that interview that made me starkly aware of the problem; I can't recommend it more highly.
Lt. Col. Daniel Davis & Art Berman May 28 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyVUgJ_5H5k Summary: This explains the two basic kinds of crude oil: heavy ("sour") and light ("sweet") — their sources (why they are found where they are) and uses. The U.S. has a native supply of light crude, useful for gasoline and petrochemicals, but has none of the heavy crude essential for distillation of the diesel and jet fuel that undergird the supply chains that make our economy possible. That must be imported, and two of the major sources (Persian Gulf, Russia) are no longer available.
Summary: Johnson lays out the situation Berman describes above, in a brief readable form, illustrated with this helpful graphic (click to expand): 
Larry C Johnson Jun 18 https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/what-triggered-trump-to-make-the Summary: In other interviews I've heard, the issue of the petroleum reserve levels of various countries has been discussed. The capacity of many of these is seriously short, many measured in days or weeks. This post is Johnson's first reference to the (political) use of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to prevent gas/diesel prices from skyrocketing. His major point is to outline the various delaying factors that will prevent the restocking of the SPR before it "runs out." These factors will have effect even if the Strait of Hormuz is "opened" immediately. They include — among others — Johnson's analysis of this starts at "The Anchored Tanker Problem" heading, below his detailing of the current "Memorandum of Understanding" between the U.S. and Iran. Larry C Johnson Jun 21 https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/strategic-oil-reserve-nears-collapse Summary: Johnson provides details here of how the SPR works. The crude oil is stored in caverns in the Southeast, with a capacity of roughly 730 million barrels (MB). A limiting factor is their structural integrity, which may be compromised if they drop below 20% of capacity (145 MB). The total availability of crude between its current reduced level (about 340 MB on June 12) and that 20% is only about 200 MB, which at current draw-down levels of 16 MB will last about 12 weeks. In the current war footing, the government is faced with deciding how the remaining capacity for producing diesel is to be allocated. If the war-footing is continued, the military will use most of it, quickly destabilizing our diesel-fueled economy. If that is to be dropped, the war presence will have to be abandoned, which Trump is under pressure from powerful influences not to do. This piece provides the following helpful graphic (click to expand): 
Summary: This fairly technical discussion of how diesel and jet fuel (competing products) are made and distributed makes it clear that the U.S. is going to run out of diesel fuel for its economy — sooner rather than later if the war continues, but in a few weeks, in any case. It explains why Trump mentioned on June 17 that he'd been told we have 4 weeks of reserves left, and suddenly changed his negotiating posture (as opposed to his midnight posts) in a more conciliatory direction.
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